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Take the discount, or roll for it?

About this demo ↓

Demo only. No payment, no real prizes, nothing saved.

Odds
Prize cap
Cart

Fernwood Pantry

Demo order #FP-20481

Your cart

  • Pantry gift box$50.00
  • Smoked chili oil$54.00
  • Wildflower honey$48.00
  • Toasted sesame crisp, 3 pack$28.00
Merchandise
$180.00
Shipping
$8.00
Total
$188.00

A choice, just for this order

Take the discount, or roll for it?

Covers merchandise only, not shipping. One roll per order, decided before the reveal. Each roll is independent, so this is a 1 in 6 chance, not every 6th order.

Checkout is off in this demo

What this order costs you

Prize value at retail, before product and shipping costs.

Chance of a win
1 in 6 (16.7%)
The matching discount
16.7% off
Expected cost, roll
$30.00
Expected cost, discount
$30.00
Worst case, one order
$180.00

No cap: a winning roll gives away the whole cart.

That one prize equals the margin on about 7 typical orders.

Assumes a $65 average order and a 40% gross margin, for illustration.

Run it 1,000 times

Chance is lumpy. Discounts aren't.

Each run draws 1,000 orders from a typical mix: mostly small baskets, a few large ones and the rare big corporate order. The die and the discount cost about the same on average. The difference is how the cost arrives.

Simulated with the dials above. Not real results.

Run a simulation to see the chart.

Roll (prizes paid out)Matching discountCumulative cost over 1,000 orders

About this demo

A chance at a free order feels very different from a discount, even when both cost the merchant the same on average. That's the idea behind the dice offers going around social media. What those clips skip is the big order: roll a winner on $5,000 of merchandise and one shopper takes a month of margin. Set the odds and a prize cap above, switch to the $5,000 cart, and watch what the cap does.

More post-purchase ideas in Checkout games.

Making it real

Rules that keep it fun and affordable

A dice offer is easy to put in a cart drawer. Running it safely takes a few more decisions.

  1. Cap the prize

    "Free up to $100" turns an open-ended risk into a known one. Say the cap in the offer itself, so nobody feels tricked.

  2. Set who can play

    Merchandise only, never shipping, tax or gift cards. A minimum order, and a maximum order or quantity, so a wholesale buyer can't play for a free pallet.

  3. Roll on the server

    The result is decided and logged when the order is placed, once per order. The die on screen only shows it.

  4. Pay out after returns close

    Winners get their refund or store credit once the order can no longer be returned. Canceled and returned orders void the prize.

  5. Give it a budget

    A monthly prize budget, with the offer switching off when it's spent. The worst month is then a number you chose.

  6. Check the law first

    In many places, a purchase plus chance plus a prize can make a promotion a lottery. A real version needs legal review, written rules and often a free way to enter.

Judge it by margin per visitor, not orders. Compare against shoppers who saw the matching discount or no offer at all.

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