# Roll for your cart: Take the discount, or roll for it?

A chance at a free order feels very different from a discount, even when both cost the merchant the same on average. That's the idea behind the dice offers going around social media. What those clips skip is the big order: roll a winner on $5,000 of merchandise and one shopper takes a month of margin. Set the odds and a prize cap above, switch to the $5,000 cart, and watch what the cap does.

Demo only. No payment, no real prizes, nothing saved.

## The demo

An invented store's cart offers a choice: a fixed discount, or a roll of the die where the top number makes the merchandise free. The merchant's dials set the odds (1 in 6, 7, 8, 10), a prize cap ($50, $100, $250 or none) and the cart size ($42, $180 or $5,000). Beside the cart, the merchant sees the chance of a win, the matching discount, the expected cost of each option and the worst case for one order.

## Chance is lumpy. Discounts aren't.

Each run draws 1,000 orders from a typical mix: mostly small baskets, a few large ones and the rare big corporate order. The die and the discount cost about the same on average. The difference is how the cost arrives. Simulated with the dials above. Not real results.

## Rules that keep it fun and affordable

A dice offer is easy to put in a cart drawer. Running it safely takes a few more decisions.

- **Cap the prize**: "Free up to $100" turns an open-ended risk into a known one. Say the cap in the offer itself, so nobody feels tricked.
- **Set who can play**: Merchandise only, never shipping, tax or gift cards. A minimum order, and a maximum order or quantity, so a wholesale buyer can't play for a free pallet.
- **Roll on the server**: The result is decided and logged when the order is placed, once per order. The die on screen only shows it.
- **Pay out after returns close**: Winners get their refund or store credit once the order can no longer be returned. Canceled and returned orders void the prize.
- **Give it a budget**: A monthly prize budget, with the offer switching off when it's spent. The worst month is then a number you chose.
- **Check the law first**: In many places, a purchase plus chance plus a prize can make a promotion a lottery. A real version needs legal review, written rules and often a free way to enter.

Judge it by margin per visitor, not orders. Compare against shoppers who saw the matching discount or no offer at all.

## Want to test an offer before you bet on it?

We design promotions, build them into Shopify and run the numbers on whether they pay. Tell us what you're thinking of trying. [Start a project](https://nr10.com/contact/)

Human version: https://nr10.com/labs/roll-for-your-cart/